TOKYO: Japan`s Prime Minister Naoto Kan, in power for just a month, will seek the popular mandate he lacks so far at upper house elections Sunday, but opinion polls suggest his chances are mixed at best.

The vote will be the first national ballot box test since his centre-left party swept to power under a different leader last August, transforming politics in Asia`s biggest economy after a half-century of conservative rule.

Kan, a pragmatist who has vowed to restore Japan`s tattered finances, is seeking popular support to draw a line under a period of revolving-door politics that has seen five new premiers in four years.

Although voters will elect only half the members of the upper house, the poll will be a litmus test for his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), whose 10-month-old coalition rule has left many voters underwhelmed.

The poll will make the difference between a strong government that can tackle the country`s problems -- including sluggish growth and a public debt mountain -- and one that remains mired in messy coalition politics.
Given recent poll numbers, most pundits predict the latter outcome.

Three newspaper polls published on Friday said Kan`s coalition may fall short of keeping a majority in the upper chamber, meaning he will face a deadlocked parliament unless he seeks new political allies.

It will be a tough test for Kan, a 63-year-old former leftist activist who was propelled to the leadership just weeks ago.

Kan on June 8 replaced his hapless predecessor Yukio Hatoyama, who had fallen out of favour with voters over political funding scandals and for his waffling style, especially on a damaging dispute over a US airbase.
"What`s at stake is whether voters can believe in Mr. Kan, who doesn`t have any achievement yet to prove his political capability as the prime minister," said Sadafumi Kawato, politics professor at Tokyo University.
"Japan needs political stability with a strong leader who can stay in office at least two or three years and speak in his own words to foreign leaders."
Voters initially cheered when Kan, the self-styled "son of a salaryman", replaced the scholarly but indecisive political blueblood Hatoyama, and his initial cabinet approval ratings soared above 60 percent.

But the enthusiasm cooled quickly after Kan told voters that a sales tax rise may be inevitable to bring down Japan`s huge public debt, which is nearing 200 percent of gross domestic product.

In a sign that Kan`s tough, bitter-pill approach backfired, polls have dived. A Nikkei survey Friday put Kan`s approval rate at 45 percent, while the Mainichi daily survey found just 43 percent support.

"Voters` main interest lies in their job stability and their welfare when they get older," said Kawato. "Mr. Kan`s argument about raising the consumption tax rate has been too vague to trust, because there has been no detailed plan on how to rebuild the country`s finances with the tax hike."
The outlook is precarious for Kan`s party in the House of Councillors, the less powerful chamber of the Diet, where the DPJ now is in coalition with a smaller party, giving them a paper-thin majority.

Half of the 242 seats will be up for grabs. The DPJ, which now holds 62 uncontested seats, needs to win at least 60 seats to gain a clear majority by themselves -- an outcome pundits consider highly unlikely.

The ruling coalition would need 56 seats to maintain the status quo, in which the DPJ holds the chamber with the People`s New Party, a tiny group which favours higher government spending.

If the DPJ wins fewer seats, as polls indicate, it would need new allies, among them possibly the pro-market Your Party, formed last year by defectors from the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

A worse outcome would likely leave Kan open to internal party leadership challenges, most likely from rival Ichiro Ozawa, a DPJ powerbroker who was forced out of his post over money scandals alongside Hatoyama.

That would spell more political instability, and trouble for the country.
"Japan has lacked strong leadership since the 1990s," said Fukuji Taguchi, professor emeritus of politics at Nagoya University, pointing to the series of leaders who lasted a year or less. "Japan`s relations with other countries have suffered because of this."

BDST: 939 HRS, July 9, 2010