BANGKOK: Two decades after the Myanmar opposition`s stolen poll victory, the junta is again gearing up for elections, but experts say years of planning mean the cards this time are stacked in its favour.

The vote is widely seen as a way for the military to put a civilian face on its iron-fisted rule, with 77-year-old junta head Senior General Than Shwe likely to retain a crucial -- if perhaps lower profile -- role.

Myanmar`s leader will want to ensure that the November 7 election produces precisely the result he requires to shield himself from a slew of enemies within the country, said Thai-based analyst Aung Naing Oo.

"Than Shwe has held the Bengal Tiger by the tail and he cannot let go, so he has to make sure that everything goes to plan," he said.

Had democracy been allowed to take its course, the generals would have been swept aside by the landslide victory of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi`s National League for Democracy (NLD) in Myanmar`s last election in 1990.

But the party was never allowed to take power and Suu Kyi has spent much of the intervening 20 years in detention.

Analysts say the ruling generals are taking no chances this time, reserving a quarter of the seats in parliament for the military and crafting election rules to ensure junta-backed parties have the upper hand.

"The generals may be exchanging their khakis for civilian clothes, but these polls are still a carefully arranged plan to keep power in the hands of the military junta," said Elaine Pearson at New York-based Human Rights Watch.

Suu Kyi, known as "The Lady" in Myanmar, is still seen as the most potent threat to the military, which has ruled the country for nearly half a century.

She is barred from standing in November because she is a serving prisoner -- the election falls days before her current term of house arrest expires -- while the NLD is boycotting the vote, citing unfair rules.

The National Democratic Force (NDF) -- an offshoot of the NLD created by those in the party who wanted to contest the poll -- faces financial difficulties and has a clear disadvantage without Suu Kyi at its helm.

So far 40 parties have been allowed to register for the polls, but some are already expressing concerns, including intimidation of their members.

Election hopefuls face a formidable set of hurdles, including a tight timetable for registering candidates as well as restrictions on campaigning.

They will also come up against the Union Solidarity and Development Party, formed in April by Prime Minister Thein Sein and other ministers who shed their uniforms.

The USDP has merged with the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) -- a pro-junta group with deep pockets and up to 27 million members, including civil servants compelled to join for the good of their careers.

Bertil Lintner, author of several books on Myanmar, said the election was a means to convert the junta into a civilian ruling class as part of efforts to build an "entirely new country" along with the new capital, Naypyidaw.

"They are creating a new capital, a new regime, a new dynasty and part of that is having a rubber stamped assembly," he said.

But with the election widely dismissed as a charade by activists and the West, some are questioning why the junta is even bothering to go through the motions.

"Everything is controlled and managed by just one man so it is very difficult to come up with a rational explanation as to why these things are happening," Aung Naing Oo said.

Even if the generals and their associates do step back from the political limelight, a recent flurry of privatisations suggests economic power will remain firmly in their grasp.

Aung Naing Oo said one explanation could be an ingrained military idea that power should be handed back to civilians -- under tightly managed conditions.

He said the military also felt a paternalistic responsibility to hold together a country repeatedly shaken by insurgencies and separatist movements among its many ethnic groups.

The Karen National Union -- whose armed wing has been fighting the Myanmar government for more than five decades -- doubts the vote will empower ethnic minorities, who complain of neglect and mistreatment.

"Even though some people will win seats in this election, I do not think they will have a voice," said spokesman David Thaw.

BDST: 0948 HRS, August 15, 2010