DHAKA: Three major meteorological agencies -- the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Japan's Meteorological Agency and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology -- have determined that water in the Pacific Ocean is now warm enough to say that El Niño is back.
The El Niño climate phenomenon is almost certain to last through the Northern Hemisphere summer, the U.S. weather forecaster said, raising the chance of heavy rain in the southern United States as well as South America, and scorching heat in Asia that could devastate crops of thirsty food staples like rice.
“There is still uncertainty over how strong El Nino will become,” David Dawe, a Bangkok-based senior economist at the United Nations’ Food & Agriculture Organization, said in an e-mail. “If El Nino aggravates drought conditions, rice crops are most likely to be affected in Indonesia, the Philippines and India, with Bangladesh possibly being affected as well.”
El Niño also reduces the likelihood of a busy hurricane season, which lasts from June to November and can disrupt energy operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
In its monthly report released on Thursday, Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of US said El Niño, a phenomenon which warms sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, had a 90 percent likelihood of continuing through the summer. In April it estimated the odds at 70 percent.
El Niño conditions will likely last through the end of the year, the CPC said, pegging the chance at 80 percent.
"[El Niño]'s definitely upon us and it should remain so for the next few months," said Don Keeney, a meteorologist with Maryland-based MDA Weather Services.
A strong El Nino last appeared in 2009-2010 and resulted in significant spikes in sugar, cocoa and wheat prices.
If a strong El Niño does develop the likely U.S. impacts include wetter conditions across the southern U.S., from drought-stricken California through Texas to Florida, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Weather Underground.
While El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation, that does not necessarily rule out a powerful storm, Masters added, citing "the anemic 1992 season" which included the catastrophic Hurricane Andrew which struck South Florida.
Forecasters have already predicted a below average Atlantic hurricane season.
The CPC report said that by early May weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected across the equatorial Pacific.
The CPC said there was still "considerable uncertainty" about the potential strength of the event.
The phenomenon known as El Niño has returned, raising the prospect of extreme weather that could cause billions in economic damage.
El Niño occurs when trade winds slacken over the Pacific, disrupting ocean currents and trapping warm water. The weather pattern can bring drought to Australia, and heavy rain to coastal South America. Jet stream patterns also change, resulting in a warmer winter for Canada.
Past El Niños have been blamed for extreme flooding in Mexico, landslides in California and crop failures across wide swathes of Asia.
In India, where food production depends on monsoon rains, El Niño can wipe out rice, wheat and cotton crops, leading to inflation.
The last severe El Niño, in 1997-1998, is estimated to have caused losses of between $10 billion and $25 billion in the U.S. In 1982-1983, more than $8 billion in damage worldwide was attributed to the cycle.
There is also some evidence that changes in weather brought on by El Niño can increase risk of certain diseases (especially mosquito-borne ailments).
But many El Niños are mild, and it's not yet clear if weather patterns will change drastically this year. In 2014, forecasters warned that an El Niño pattern was developing, but significant climate changes did not materialize.
"At this time, there is also considerable uncertainty as to how strong this event may become," NOAA said last month. According to the agency, there is a more than 60% chance that the pattern will hold through autumn.
Warnings from other forecasters have been more forceful.
"This is a proper El Niño effect, it's not a weak one," David Jones, manager of climate monitoring and prediction at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, told reporters this week.
"You know, there's always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we'd suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Niño event," he said.
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, CNN
BDST: 1646 HRS, MAY 13, 2015
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